Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 March 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 05 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 064 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels today. Region
741 (N12E57) produced a C1 x-ray flare that occurred at 05/2007Z.
No significant changes in magnetic complexity or sunspot area were
observed during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels throughout the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels during the
period. A recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is expected to
become geoeffective beginning on 6 March. The coronal hole effects
are expected to last for several days. Periods of isolated minor
storm conditions are possible on 7 March. Predominantly unsettled
to active conditions are expected on 8 March.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Mar 081 Predicted 06 Mar-08 Mar 085/090/095 90 Day Mean 05 Mar 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar 001/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 012/015-020/025-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
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