Viewing archive of Friday, 4 March 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 04 2250 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 063 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 741
(N12E70) is a newly numbered CSO beta group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on 5 March. Isolated active
conditions may occur late on 6 March due to the onset of a recurrent
high speed coronal hole stream. Isolated minor storm conditions are
possible on 7 March due to the continued effects from the high speed
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 079 Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 080/085/085 90 Day Mean 04 Mar 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 001/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 002/005-012/015-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
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