Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 January 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. A C1.1 flare occurred at
11/2329Z from Region 718 (S07E19). Region 718 and 720 (N13E37) have
exhibited significant growth in both area and number of spots.
Region 720 increased its area from 50 millionths to 420 millionths
since the last reporting period. However, both regions still
maintain a beta magnetic structure and have been relatively quiet so
far.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class activity. Region 720 is the most likely
source for an M-class flare due to it continual growth.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to minor storm levels. Minor
storm levels occurred due to the onset of a geoeffective coronal
hole. Solar wind speed has increased from approximately 400 km/s to
700 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm levels
possible on 13 January. Quiet to active conditions are expected on
14 January while quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 15
January as the high speed stream diminishes.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
| Class M | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jan 102 Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 12 Jan 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 009/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 015/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 010/020-010/015-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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