Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 December 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 710 (S06W61) was responsible for a few B-class flares. A full halo CME observed on LASCO imagery late on 15 December was determined to be a farside event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. A new region rotating on the southeast limb may slightly increase activity levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels late in the period. A gradual increase in solar wind speed began about 16/0500Z. Speed increased from near 350 km/s to 600 km/s by the end of the day. This is likely the onset of a recurrent high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with minor storm periods at high latitudes on 17 and 18 December. Expect quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active conditions on 19 December as the high speed coronal hole stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Dec 090
  Predicted   17 Dec-19 Dec  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        16 Dec 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec  003/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Dec  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  012/020-008/015-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%25%25%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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