Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 December 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 713 (S08W06) produced several C-class events. The largest was a C5 at 23/1008 UTC. This flare was optically correlated with the GOES X-ray imager data.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are possible on 26 December with the affects from a recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Dec 096
  Predicted   24 Dec-26 Dec  105/105/105
  90 Day Mean        23 Dec 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec  012/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Dec  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec  010/010-012/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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