Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 December 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 22 2350 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 713 (S10E07) produced a C2/Sf event at 22/2025 UTC. This region has went relatively unchanged and retains a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. A new region was numbered today as Region 714 (S04W01).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm conditions. The ACE solar wind data suggest the possible influence of a high speed solar wind stream. In the past 24 hours the solar wind velocity has steadily increased from around 400 km/s to above 550 km/s with southward fluctuating Bz, and low density.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated periods of active conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Dec 099
  Predicted   23 Dec-25 Dec  105/105/105
  90 Day Mean        22 Dec 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec  006/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Dec  015/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec  012/015-010/010-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%01%05%

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