Viewing archive of Saturday, 20 November 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was very low today. Region 704 (N12E51)
has shown slight growth in area. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active periods were due
to the effects of sustained periods of southward Bz. Solar wind
speed at ACE showed an increase from 450 km/s to 550 km/s at
approximately 1600 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Nov 099 Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 20 Nov 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 010/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 008/020-004/010-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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