Viewing archive of Friday, 29 October 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Oct 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was low. As it has the past few days,
Region 693 (S14E46) produced numerous impulsive C-class flares. The
region continues to exhibit bright plage and maintains a degree of
magnetic complexity. Elsewhere, little else of significance
occurred.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 693 should produce additional C-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. An enhancement in the
southward component of the IMF brought brief intervals of unsettled
to active conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at quiet to unsettled conditions for the next 72
hours.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Oct 129 Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 130/125/125 90 Day Mean 29 Oct 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 005/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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