Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 October 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Oct 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 693 (S14E61) had the
majority of the small flares that occurred during the period. Its
largest event was a C3 at 0316 UTC. The region appears to consist of
a mature spot group with a moderate degree of magnetic complexity.
Region 687 (N12W37), the active center of the past few days, was
mostly quiet and stable. New Region 694 (N16E22) emerged on the
disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at the low level.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the interval.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Oct 133 Predicted 29 Oct-31 Oct 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 28 Oct 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 005/008-010/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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