Viewing archive of Friday, 8 October 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Oct 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 680 (N14W83)
was newly numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. There's a small
chance for isolated periods of active levels beginning on 11 Oct due
to the influence of a recurrent high-speed solar wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Oct 091 Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 095/095/090 90 Day Mean 08 Oct 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 005/007-005/007-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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