Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 October 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Oct 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. A string of minor
B-class activity has occurred over the last 24 hours emanating from
Region 680 (N15W90).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through 12 Oct.
Beginning on 11 Oct, there is a slight chance for isolated active
levels due to the effects of a recurrent high-speed solar wind
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Oct 088 Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 090/085/085 90 Day Mean 09 Oct 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 005/007-010/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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