Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 October 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Oct 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels today.
Region 678 (N12W75) showed slight growth in spot area today and
produced a minor B-class flare. Disk and limb activity was sparse
throughout the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Oct 094 Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 07 Oct 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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