Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 July 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jul 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Newly numbered Region 641
(N14E54) produced a B4 x-ray flare at 04/1520 UTC. This region is
spotless plage which rotated onto the disk on 02 July. Other disk
regions were relatively stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jul 079 Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 080/080/085 90 Day Mean 04 Jul 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 005/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 005/008-008/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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