Viewing archive of Monday, 7 June 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels today. Region
621 (S14W57) produced the largest flare of the period, a long
duration C2 x-ray event that occurred at 07/0045Z. A faint,
asymmetrical full halo CME resulted from the event which appears to
have a weak Earthward directed component. This region has undergone
further decay today in sunspot coverage. Region 627 (S08E04) grew
in sunspot area and magnetic complexity. Region 624 (S08W18)
produced a low level B-class flare at 06/2253Z. Regions 628
(S09E13), 629 (S04E22), and 630 (N13E56) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels throughout the period.
Weak recurrent coronal hole influences and associated elevated wind
speeds are anticipated on 8 and 9 June, especially at higher
latitudes. A glancing blow from the faint full halo CME that
resulted from the long duration C2 flare is expected to transit the
Earth's geomagnetic field on 10 June.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jun to 10 Jun
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jun 089 Predicted 08 Jun-10 Jun 090/100/105 90 Day Mean 07 Jun 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun 012/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun 008/012-010/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun to 10 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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