Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 November 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 501 (N03W04)
continues to be active, generating a series of high C-class flares
and an M1.7 at 19/0401Z. Region 508 (S17E75) formerly old Region
486, was newly numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 505 (S22E41) and 506 (S20E62), along with 501
will continue to be a strong threat for M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. The
coronal hole which had driven high solar wind speeds for the last
few days, has progressed beyond geoeffective range, and activity has
relaxed. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels for the next 24 hours.
Minor storm levels should occur near the middle of the period, due
to a glancing blow from an interplanetary shock issued by an M4
flare on 17 Nov. Beginning near midday on day 2, magnetic activity
should jump quickly to active to major storm levels for the
remainder of the period. A strong shock associated with a
combination of a disappearing solar filament and coronal mass
ejection should impact the Earth's magnetic field on or about 20 Nov
at 1200Z.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 155 Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 180/200/210 90 Day Mean 19 Nov 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 018/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 040/050-030/040-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
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