Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 October 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest
flare was an optically uncorrelated B8 at 1510Z. Region 471
(S08W44) decreased in area coverage and has simplified to a beta
magnetic configuration. Region 478 (N10W06) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 471 has the potential for C-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels with one
period of isolated active conditions during local night time hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomanetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Oct 111 Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 09 Oct 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 006/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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