Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 October 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels today. Region
471 (S08W31) was responsible for all of today's recorded activity
and produced several B and C-class flares during the past 24 hours.
The largest was a C3/Sf that occurred at 07/2357 UTC. White light
showed a slight, yet steady increase in penumbral coverage during
the period. This region continues to exhibit a gamma structure near
the center of the spot cluster. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels. Region 471 has a slight chance of producing an
isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is in the waning stage.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the majority of
the period. Day three may see elevated conditions due to a solar
sector boundary crossing.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Oct 113 Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 110/105/105 90 Day Mean 08 Oct 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 011/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 008/010-006/010-010/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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