Viewing archive of Monday, 28 July 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 421
(S08E67) has shown significant growth over the period and has begun
to produce B and C-class flares. A weak gamma magnetic structure
has become evident in the central portion of the region. Newly
numbered Region 422 (N14W41) appears to be a fully developed region
(possibly the return of old Region 400) and has also produced B and
C-class flares today. This region may have a fair degree of
magnetic complexity, but it is currently too close to the east limb
for a comprehensive analysis.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 421 and 422 may both have the potential to
produce an isolated low level M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is believed to be
responsible for the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels.
Isolated minor storm conditions are expected throughout the interval
due to high speed solar wind effects.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jul 103 Predicted 29 Jul-31 Jul 110/115/120 90 Day Mean 28 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul 016/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul 018/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul 020/025-015/025-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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