Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 July 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's activity consisted of a few, low-level C-class flares from
Region 397 (N10E26). This region is no longer growing and may even
be showing a slight decaying trend. Nonetheless the group remains
the largest on disk at 770 millionths and consists of highly mixed
magnetic polarities including a small delta spot near the trailing
part of the region. New Region 400 (N05E69) was assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there continues to be a chance for an isolated
M-class event from Region 397 during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, but there was an
active period from 0300-0600 UTC. Solar wind speed showed steady
decline during the past 24 hours from initial values around 750 km/s
to day end values around 550 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron
fluxes were high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with occasional active periods for
the next two days. An increase to active is expected on the third
day in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jul 131 Predicted 02 Jul-04 Jul 130/135/135 90 Day Mean 01 Jul 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun 014/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul 013/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 010/015-010/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
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