Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 January 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 243 (S19W47)
and 244 (S23E40) produced multiple B and C-class flares during the
period. The largest was a C4.7/Sf from Region 244 that occurred at
03/2200 UTC. This region has quadrupled in white-light areal spot
coverage during the past 24 hours. Regions 243 and 242 (S08E33)
have also shown significant spot growth and both region's have
developed a gamma magnetic structure since yesterday. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A favorably
positioned coronal hole was responsible for the elevated conditions.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the forecast
period.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 143 Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 145/150/150 90 Day Mean 04 Jan 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 012/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 008/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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