Viewing archive of Sunday, 8 December 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 214(N13W70)
produced a C2 flare at 08/0825 UTC. Region 212 (N14W05) has
developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration due to weak polarity
mixing. Three new regions were numbered today: Region 216 (S24W39),
Region 217 (N12E56), and Region 218 (S20E68)
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 212 and Region 214 are likely to produce C-class
events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind
velocities remain elevated near 600 km/s and Bz continues to be
predominantly positive.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Coronal hole effects are
expected through day one of the period. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux may exceed event threshold on day two and three of the
forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Dec 154 Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 155/150/150 90 Day Mean 08 Dec 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 008/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 012/015-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 00% | 00% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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