Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 October 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 158 (S07W18)
produced a C7/Sf flare at 19/0122 UTC. Region 158 has shown slight
decay in area coverage but retained a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. Region 162 (N26E59) continues to develop as it
rotates onto the visible disk. In the last 24 hours, this region
has shown an increase in area coverage, spot count and the formation
of a beta-gamma magnetic configuration in the trailing spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 162 has M-class potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic filed was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind
velocities gradually increased to an average of 675 km/s. Bz has
been predominantly northward resulting in only unsettled conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. There is a chance of isolated
active or minor storm conditions due to the elevated solar wind
speed.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Oct 180 Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 180/180/175 90 Day Mean 19 Oct 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 009/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 010/012-006/008-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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