Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 September 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was low. A few C-class flares occurred.
Region 119 (S14W49) remains the largest, most complex sunspot group
on the disk but appears to have simplified somewhat. Four new
Regions were numbered: 129 (N25E54), 130 (N06E52), 131 (S07E35), and
132 (N18W01).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 119 seems to be the most capable area for
M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Sep 160 Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 160/160/160 90 Day Mean 22 Sep 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 005/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 008/008-008/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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