Viewing archive of Friday, 7 June 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only a few small flares
occurred. Region 9973 (S15W56) continues to decay. Region 9987
(S16E11) is growing. New Regions 9989 (S33W31), 9990 (S23E19), and
9991 (S22E69) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled. Activity levels may be
elevated on 08 June due to a CME that occurred on 05 June.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jun to 10 Jun
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jun 158 Predicted 08 Jun-10 Jun 155/150/150 90 Day Mean 07 Jun 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun 006/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun 010/012-008/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun to 10 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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