Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 June 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only a few B and C-class flares
occurred. The largest was a C2/1F flare at 06/1703 UTC in Region
9975 (N22W45). Region 9973 (S15W43) remains the largest sunspot
group on the disk but has not produced significant activity. New
Regions 9987 (S16E24) and 9988 (S14E04) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
A small chance of an isolated M-class flare in 9973 remains.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active over the next 48 hours in response to
a CME that occurred on 05 June.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jun to 09 Jun
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jun 155 Predicted 07 Jun-09 Jun 150/150/155 90 Day Mean 06 Jun 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun 005/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun 012/015-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun to 09 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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