Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 October 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate with 3 M-class flares and 3 C-class flares. A M1.2/SF occurred in Region 9632 (S21W89) at 01/2340 UTC and a M1.0/SF in Region 9641 (S14E07) at 02/1123 UTC. A M1.4 occurred with no optical correlation. Two new regions were numbered today, Region 9647 (S16E31) and Region 9648 (S04E78).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate to high levels. Region 9632(S21W89) has major flare potential for the first day of the period. Region 9636 (N14W41) remains a beta-Gamma configuration and has M-class flare potential. Old Region 9608 is due to return on the first day of the period as Region 9632 rotates beyond the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity reached minor storm level. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux peaked at 2360 PFU 02/0810 UTC. Flux levels declined over the remainder of the period, but remained at event levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods possible. Analyst of the CME that occurred at 01/0530 UTC indicates it was likely a backside event and will have limited impact. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early in the period.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
Class M75%75%70%
Class X20%20%15%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Oct 201
  Predicted   03 Oct-05 Oct  205/195/190
  90 Day Mean        02 Oct 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct  025/050
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Oct  025/040
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct  015/020-015/040-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm30%20%05%
Major-severe storm15%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm30%25%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

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