Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 September 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Sep 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 9601 (N13W38) produced an M6/2b flare at 05/1432Z. Moderate centimetric radio bursts including a 770 sfu Tenflare accompanied this event. This region was also responsible for an M3/1n flare at 04/2159Z. Region 9606 (S17E32) produced an M1/1n at 05/1913Z. New Region 9608 (S24E70) was numbered today. Limb proximity hinders a detailed analysis of this region, but space based imagery indicates significant complexity exists.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels. Regions 9601 and 9608 will likely produce C and M class flares. An isolated major flare is possible from either region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
Class M75%75%75%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Sep 218
  Predicted   06 Sep-08 Sep  215/215/215
  90 Day Mean        05 Sep 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep  011/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Sep  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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