Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 July 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jul 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Isolated
B-class X-ray flares occurred. Region 9553 (N13W05) showed
significant growth, almost doubling its area during the last 24
hours. However, it remained simply structured. Region 9543 (S24W70)
continued to gradually decay. The remaining sunspot groups were
small, stable and simply structured. New Regions 9557 (S18E72) and
9558 (N18W30) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Active
levels occurred due to coronal effects.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may reach high levels early in
the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jul 123 Predicted 27 Jul-29 Jul 125/120/120 90 Day Mean 26 Jul 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul 021/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul 015/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 010/012-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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