Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 July 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jul 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Activity remained low. Gradual decay occurred in Region
9543 (S23W58), which produced an isolated C-class subflare. Minor
spot growth occurred in Region 9553 (N13E08) early in the period.
The remaining active regions were small, stable, and simply
structured, including newly numbered Region 9556 (S07W42).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
low. However, there will be a slight chance for an isolated M-class
flare from Region 9543.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to active levels
with brief minor to major storm levels detected at high latitudes.
This activity was likely due to coronal hole effects.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to active levels during the first day as
coronal hole effects continue. Activity is expected to decrease to
quiet to unsettled levels during the rest of the period as coronal
hole effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jul to 28 Jul
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jul 133 Predicted 26 Jul-28 Jul 135/130/130 90 Day Mean 25 Jul 155
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul 011/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul 018/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul 015/015-012/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul to 28 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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