Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 October 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9182 (N04W90) produced an M1/Sf flare at 14/0840 UTC, as well as several C-class subfaint flares. Region 9194 (S12E36) exhibited some increased activity today, also producing several C-class subfaint flares. Single flares of similar magnitude were noted from a few other regions, including newly numbered Region 9198 (S30E65).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to become predominantly low, with the departure of Region 9182 behind the western limb. A chance of isolated moderate-level activity remains for regions 9194, 9193 (N05W46), and for new regions expected on the eastern limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field varied from unsettled to major storm levels, due to a prolonged period of negative Bz accompanied by moderate solar wind speed. Greatest activity occurred during 14/0900-1800 UTC, which saw two periods of storming at minor levels in middle latitudes, and at major levels in higher latitudes. Possible sources of this activity include extended effects of the 09 October CME passage, which commenced yesterday, or trailing effects from a weaker LDE C-flare that occurred about 30 hours after the CME.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to ease to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods. The current geomagnetic disturbance is expected to end during day one, and an onset of high speed stream effects from a coronal hole is expected to emerge thereafter, persisting through day two and tapering off during day three. Isolated minor storming at higher latitudes is possible during this period.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Oct 163
  Predicted   15 Oct-17 Oct  175/185/195
  90 Day Mean        14 Oct 177
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct  022/027
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Oct  028/040
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct  018/020-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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