Viewing archive of Friday, 13 October 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2000 :::::::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::::::::

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity dropped from moderate to low levels. The M1 flare in progress at the end of last period had an associated subfaint flare from Region 9182 (N04W78) at 12/2117 UTC. Region 9195 (N14W82) had a C6/2n flare at 13/0620 UTC. No radio sweeps or halos were observed in association with these events. Numerous C-class subfaint flares were observed from these regions through the remainder of the day, as well as a C2/Sf from Region 9196 (S33W65) at 13/0414 UTC. Other regions were stable and exhibited no notable activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels, with an isolated chance of moderate activity from regions 9182, 9195, or returning old Region 9169 (N12, L = 080).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to major storm levels. A shock passage in association with CME activity seen on October 9 was observed at ACE at 12/2130 UTC. Minor storming and isolated major storming at high latitudes was observed during 13/00-06 UTC. Activity thereafter was at unsettled to active levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled to active, with an increasing chance of isolated minor storming during days two and three, with the expected onset of high speed stream effects from a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Oct 168
  Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct  180/195/205
  90 Day Mean        13 Oct 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  005/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Oct  023/027
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  012/012-015/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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