Viewing archive of Friday, 13 October 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2000 :::::::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::::::::IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity dropped from moderate to low levels.
The M1 flare in progress at the end of last period had an associated
subfaint flare from Region 9182 (N04W78) at 12/2117 UTC. Region
9195 (N14W82) had a C6/2n flare at 13/0620 UTC. No radio sweeps or
halos were observed in association with these events. Numerous
C-class subfaint flares were observed from these regions through the
remainder of the day, as well as a C2/Sf from Region 9196 (S33W65)
at 13/0414 UTC. Other regions were stable and exhibited no
notable activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels, with an isolated chance of moderate activity from
regions 9182, 9195, or returning old Region 9169 (N12, L = 080).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to major storm levels. A shock
passage in association with CME activity seen on October 9 was
observed at ACE at 12/2130 UTC. Minor storming and isolated major
storming at high latitudes was observed during 13/00-06 UTC.
Activity thereafter was at unsettled to active levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled to active, with an increasing
chance of isolated minor storming during days two and three, with
the expected onset of high speed stream effects from a favorably
positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Oct 168 Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 180/195/205 90 Day Mean 13 Oct 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 023/027 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 012/012-015/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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