Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 September 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Sep 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 16 SEP 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 9165 (N13W14) PRODUCED AN M5/2B AT 16/0426 UTC. THIS FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH TYPE II AND IV SWEEPS AND AN 1100 SFU RADIO BURST AT 2695 MHZ. IN ADDITION, THE LASCO INSTRUMENT ON THE SOHO SPACECRAFT OBSERVED AN EARTH-DIRECTED CME FOLLOWING THIS FLARE. REGION 9165 ALSO PRODUCED AN M3/2N AT 16/1428 UTC AS WELL AS SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES. THIS REGION REMAINS THE LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX ON THE VISIBLE DISK BUT HAS SHOWN SOME PENUMBRAL DECAY AND MAGNETIC SIMPLIFICATION SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 9166 (S14E50) CONTINUED TO GENERATE SMALL C-CLASS FLARES. THIS REGION HAS UNDERGONE SOME GROWTH IN SPOT AREA AND NUMBER SINCE YESTERDAY. NEW REGION 9167 (N12E80) IS ROTATING AROUND THE EAST LIMB.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 9165 IS THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE FOR ENERGETIC FLARE ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE BZ COMPONENT OF THE IMF HAS FLUCTUATED BETWEEN 0 AND -10NT FOR ABOUT THE LAST 24 HOURS WHILE WIND SPEED HAS BEEN BELOW 400 KM/S AND DENSITY ABOUT 10 P/CC. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT DROPPED BELOW EVENT THRESHOLD (10 PFU) AT 15/2140 UTC. CURRENT FLUX AT GREATER THAN 10 MEV REMAINS ENHANCED AT ABOUT 5 PFU BUT IS DROPPING SLOWLY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STORM CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN BY THE THIRD DAY DUE TO THE M5/2B FLARE AND RELATED CME THAT OCCURRED EARLY ON SEP 16.
III. Event Probabilities 17 SEP to 19 SEP
Class M75%75%75%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 SEP 175
  Predicted   17 SEP-19 SEP  180/185/185
  90 Day Mean        16 SEP 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 SEP  013/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 SEP  015/017
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 SEP-19 SEP  015/015-015/012-040/040
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 SEP to 19 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%50%
Minor storm15%15%30%
Major-severe storm05%05%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%50%
Minor storm15%15%30%
Major-severe storm05%05%15%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

44%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/03/28X1.1
Last M-flare2024/04/11M5.3
Last geomagnetic storm2024/03/25Kp5 (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
March 2024104.9 -19.8

This day in history*

Solar flares
12001X2.9
22002M5.79
32013M4.79
42002M2
52000M1.96
ApG
1200150G3
2201019G2
3200530G1
4199430G1
5201123G1
*since 1994

Social networks