Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 September 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Sep 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 28 SEP 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A FEW MINOR C-CLASS
EVENTS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD. WHILE STILL A LARGE SUNSPOT
GROUP, REGION 9169 (N12W58) HAS DECAYED FURTHER AND NOW MEASURES
APPROXIMATELY 790 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA WITH 51 SPOTS.
REGION 9170 (S06W63) HAS ALSO SHOWN SOME DECAY SINCE YESTERDAY.
SLIGHT GROWTH WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 9173 (S12E25), AND THE REGION
HAS PRODUCED A COUPLE OF MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS. NEW REGION 9178
(S23E63) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. THERE REMAINS
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. TWO PERIODS OF ISOLATED
ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED. CHARACTERISTICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS ARE
NOW NEGLIGIBLE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT WERE AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
III. Event Probabilities 29 SEP to 01 OCT
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 SEP 202 Predicted 29 SEP-01 OCT 195/190/180 90 Day Mean 28 SEP 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 SEP 008/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 SEP 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 SEP-01 OCT 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 SEP to 01 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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