Viewing archive of Monday, 21 August 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Aug 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 21 AUG 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS A C4/1F AT 21/0538Z FROM REGION 9125. MODERATE GROWTH CONTINUED IN REGION 9139. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT LOW LEVELS WITH THE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED MINOR M-CLASS EVENT POSSIBLE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ONE ISOLATED PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS OBSERVED FROM 21/0900Z - 21/1200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 22 AUG to 24 AUG
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 AUG 151
  Predicted   22 AUG-24 AUG  145/135/130
  90 Day Mean        21 AUG 183
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 AUG  003/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 AUG  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 AUG-24 AUG  010/010-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 AUG to 24 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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