Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 July 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 25 JUL 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN HIGH. REGION 9097 (N08W15),
CURRENTLY THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK, PRODUCED AN M8/2B FLARE AT
0249Z WHICH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY TYPE II AND TYPE IV RADIO SWEEPS. AN
ASSOCIATED FAINT HALO CME WAS OBSERVED BY LASCO, BEGINNING AT
0330Z. THIS REGION PRODUCED AN ADDITIONAL M-CLASS EVENT: AN M1/1B AT
1846Z. REGION 9087 (S10W80) PRODUCED AN M3/2N AT 0456Z. THE GROUP
CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE, F-TYPE REGION AS IT APPROACHES WEST LIMB.
SOME GROWTH WAS NOTED IN REGION 9090 (N15W48) BUT THE GROUP COULD
ONLY MUSTER A C6/SN FLARE AT 1241Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE, WITH REGIONS 9087, 9097, AND 9090 BEING THE MOST LIKELY
SOURCES FOR M-CLASS FLARES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
X-CLASS OR PROTON PRODUCING FLARE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED WITH POSSIBLE ACTIVE PERIODS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AN INCREASE MAY OCCUR IF EFFECTS FROM THE CME OF 24
JULY MATERIALIZE. MOSTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ON
THE SECOND DAY, AND AN INCREASE TO ACTIVE (WITH POSSIBLE MINOR-TO-
MAJOR STORM PERIODS) IS EXPECTED SOMETIME ON THE THIRD DAY. THIS
INCREASE IS PREDICTED BECAUSE OF THE HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
MENTIONED IN PART IA.
III. Event Probabilities 26 JUL to 28 JUL
| Class M | 75% | 70% | 65% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 JUL 202 Predicted 26 JUL-28 JUL 190/190/190 90 Day Mean 25 JUL 190
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 JUL 004/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 JUL 007/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 JUL-28 JUL 012/020-010/015-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 JUL to 28 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 25% |
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