Viewing archive of Sunday, 23 July 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 23 JUL 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. REGION 9097 (N10E13) HAS PRODUCED AN M1 EVENT AND REGION 9087 (S11W54) HAS BEEN THE SOURCE OF SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS AS IT NEARS WEST LIMB. LESSER FLARES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN REGIONS 9095 (N25W66), 9090 (N13W20), AND 9085 (N14W75).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE WITH M-CLASS EVENTS POSSIBLE FROM ANY OF SEVERAL ACTIVE REGIONS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NO ORGANIZED STRUCTURES NEAR EARTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ON-GOING PERIODS OF ACTIVITY. THE INTERPLANETARY FIELD APPEARS TO BE LITTERED WITH IRREGULAR, MINOR FEATURES PROBABLY ORIGINATING WITH THE CONTINUING SOLAR ACTIVITY OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. A SMALL PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN 23/1320Z WAS DECLARED OVER AT 23/2310Z AS FLUX VALUES HAD DECLINED BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR SUCH EVENTS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF A MINOR STORM AS REMNANTS OF VARIOUS SOLAR EVENTS CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE AS A SOURCE IS A LONGER DURATION M3 EVENT THAT OCCURRED ON 22/1117Z WHOSE IMPACT WOULD BE MOST PROBABLE ON 24 JULY. A NEGATIVE POLARITY CORONAL HOLE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FIVE TO SIX DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 24 JUL to 26 JUL
Class M 85%80%75%
Class X 30%25%20%
Proton35%35%25%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 JUL 217
  Predicted    24 JUL-26 JUL  210/200/190
  90 Day Mean        23 JUL 190
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 JUL  011/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 JUL  015/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 JUL-26 JUL  015/018-020/020-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 JUL to 26 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%30%
Minor storm 15%20%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%40%30%
Minor storm 15%25%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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