SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. REGION 9097 (N10E13) HAS PRODUCED AN M1 EVENT AND REGION 9087 (S11W54) HAS BEEN THE SOURCE OF SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS AS IT NEARS WEST LIMB. LESSER FLARES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN REGIONS 9095 (N25W66), 9090 (N13W20), AND 9085 (N14W75).

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE WITH M-CLASS EVENTS POSSIBLE FROM ANY OF SEVERAL ACTIVE REGIONS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NO ORGANIZED STRUCTURES NEAR EARTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ON-GOING PERIODS OF ACTIVITY. THE INTERPLANETARY FIELD APPEARS TO BE LITTERED WITH IRREGULAR, MINOR FEATURES PROBABLY ORIGINATING WITH THE CONTINUING SOLAR ACTIVITY OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. A SMALL PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN 23/1320Z WAS DECLARED OVER AT 23/2310Z AS FLUX VALUES HAD DECLINED BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR SUCH EVENTS.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF A MINOR STORM AS REMNANTS OF VARIOUS SOLAR EVENTS CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE AS A SOURCE IS A LONGER DURATION M3 EVENT THAT OCCURRED ON 22/1117Z WHOSE IMPACT WOULD BE MOST PROBABLE ON 24 JULY. A NEGATIVE POLARITY CORONAL HOLE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FIVE TO SIX DAYS.

  Observed       23 JUL 217
  Predicted   24 JUL-26 JUL  210/200/190
  90 Day Mean        23 JUL 190

OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 JUL  011/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 JUL  015/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 JUL-26 JUL  015/018-020/020-015/018