Viewing archive of Monday, 26 June 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 26 JUN 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. OCCASIONAL,
MOSTLY LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS SUBFLARES OCCURRED, MOST OF WHICH WERE
PRODUCED BY REGION 9054 (N12W18). THIS REGION IS A MEDIUM-SIZED,
MIXED-POLARITY (BETA-GAMMA) GROUP THAT HAS GRADUALLY DEVELOPED
DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. IT WAS THE LIKELY SOURCE (BASED ON
SOHO/EIT IMAGES) FOR A C4 X-RAY FLARE AT 26/0157Z ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK TYPE II RADIO SWEEP (EST. SHOCK VELOCITY 800 KM/SEC) AND A
POSSIBLE PARTIAL-HALO CME. REGIONS 9046 (N20W75) AND 9049 (N16W09)
DECAYED SLIGHTLY, WHILE THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE. NEW
REGION 9063 (N24E41) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES ARE EXPECTED.
REGION 9054 APPEARS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY INCREASED TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS
WITH BRIEF MINOR TO MAJOR STORM PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING 27 - 28 JUNE
WITH BRIEF STORM LEVELS POSSIBLE AT HIGH LATITUDES. FIELD ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING THE LAST
DAY OF THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MODERATE TO HIGH
LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 27 JUN to 29 JUN
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 JUN 177 Predicted 27 JUN-29 JUN 170/165/165 90 Day Mean 26 JUN 185
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 JUN 011/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 JUN 020/030 PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 JUN-29 JUN 015/020-015/017-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 JUN to 29 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
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