Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 May 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 30 MAY 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE DAY WAS AN UNOBSERVED C5 AT 2041Z. OF THE 9 SPOTTED REGIONS, REGION 9017 (S13E02) IS THE MOST INTERESTING. IT HAD A C1/0F VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD, AT 29/2346Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT THE LOW LEVEL.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS, WITH UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS THE MOST COMMON. THIS DISTURBANCE IS RELATED TO A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM, WITH A VELOCITY OF 600-650 KM/S. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS AT APPROXIMATELY 1400Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM SHOULD DIMINISH, AND STRICTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY THE END OF THE INTERVAL.
III. Event Probabilities 31 MAY to 02 JUN
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 MAY 146
  Predicted   31 MAY-02 JUN  145/145/145
  90 Day Mean        30 MAY 192
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 MAY  019/024
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 MAY  020/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 MAY-02 JUN  015/018-015/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 MAY to 02 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%25%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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