Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 August 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Aug 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 19 AUG 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS
OCCURRED. THE LARGEST EVENT DURING THE PERIOD WAS A C5/SF AT
19/0439Z FROM REGION 9125 (N27W49). NEW REGIONS 9137 (N23E45), AND
9138 (S32E64) WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT LOW LEVELS WITH THE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM
REGION 9125.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT MODERATE LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 20 AUG to 22 AUG
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 AUG 157 Predicted 20 AUG-22 AUG 155/150/150 90 Day Mean 19 AUG 184
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 AUG 003/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 AUG 005/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 AUG-22 AUG 005/008-005/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 AUG to 22 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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