Viewing archive of Monday, 26 June 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 26 JUN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. OCCASIONAL, MOSTLY LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS SUBFLARES OCCURRED, MOST OF WHICH WERE PRODUCED BY REGION 9054 (N12W18). THIS REGION IS A MEDIUM-SIZED, MIXED-POLARITY (BETA-GAMMA) GROUP THAT HAS GRADUALLY DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. IT WAS THE LIKELY SOURCE (BASED ON SOHO/EIT IMAGES) FOR A C4 X-RAY FLARE AT 26/0157Z ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TYPE II RADIO SWEEP (EST. SHOCK VELOCITY 800 KM/SEC) AND A POSSIBLE PARTIAL-HALO CME. REGIONS 9046 (N20W75) AND 9049 (N16W09) DECAYED SLIGHTLY, WHILE THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE. NEW REGION 9063 (N24E41) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES ARE EXPECTED. REGION 9054 APPEARS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY INCREASED TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH BRIEF MINOR TO MAJOR STORM PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING 27 - 28 JUNE WITH BRIEF STORM LEVELS POSSIBLE AT HIGH LATITUDES. FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING THE LAST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 27 JUN to 29 JUN
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 JUN 177
  Predicted   27 JUN-29 JUN  170/165/165
  90 Day Mean        26 JUN 185
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 JUN  011/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 JUN  020/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 JUN-29 JUN  015/020-015/017-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 JUN to 29 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%20%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%25%
Minor storm25%25%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%01%

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