Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 May 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 16 MAY 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A SINGLE M3/SF FROM REGION 9002 (N19E61) AT 16/1551UT. THE OTHER REGIONS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WERE 8989 (N18W80), 8993 (S21W84), AND 8998 (S13E28), ALL OF WHICH PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS. THE LARGEST REGION REMAINS 8996 (S21E31) WITH AN AREA OF 1240 MILLIONTHS AND 41 SPOTS. IT HAS YET TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE. ACTIVE PERIODS COULD INCREASE ON THE SECOND DAY, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR STORMING AT HIGHER LATITUDES DUE TO POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH A CME REPORTED ON 15 MAY.
III. Event Probabilities 17 MAY to 19 MAY
Class M80%80%80%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 MAY 259
  Predicted   17 MAY-19 MAY  260/260/265
  90 Day Mean        16 MAY 190
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 MAY  012/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 MAY  015/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 MAY-19 MAY  015/020-025/030-018/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 MAY to 19 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%50%30%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%70%35%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%

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