Viewing archive of Monday, 15 May 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 15 MAY 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. SEVEN M-CLASS EVENTS WERE REPORTED DURING THE PERIOD. THE LARGEST WAS AN M4/SF AT 15/0902UT FROM REGION 9002 (N18E70). THIS EVENT ALSO INCLUDED A 640 SFU TENFLARE AND A FULL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME). REGION 8993 (S21W72) PRODUCED THREE M1 EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8998 (S14E41) ALSO PRODUCED AN M1 EVENT. THERE WERE TWO UNCORRELATED M-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. THE LARGEST REGION WAS 8996 (S21E31) WITH AN AREA OF 1280 MILLIONTHS AND 45 SPOTS. IT HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN GROWTH AND SPOT COUNT SINCE YESTERDAY BUT HAS YET TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED: 9003 (S18W40) AND 9004 (N10E61).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HIGH LEVELS DUE TO CONTINUED MULTIPLE M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE ON THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD. ACTIVE PERIODS COULD INCREASE ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS DUE TO POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH THE CME THAT OCCURRED ON 15 MAY, AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
III. Event Probabilities 16 MAY to 18 MAY
Class M80%80%80%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 MAY 244
  Predicted   16 MAY-18 MAY  245/250/250
  90 Day Mean        15 MAY 189
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 MAY  011/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 MAY  012/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 MAY-18 MAY  010/012-015/015-025/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 MAY to 18 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%50%
Minor storm10%10%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%70%
Minor storm15%15%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%

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