Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 July 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jul 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 JUL 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW DUE TO TWO C-CLASS EVENTS.
REGIONS 8625 (S18W40), 8627 (S14W20), AND 8634 (S19E30) ALL PRODUCED
MINOR ACTIVITY. THE REST OF THE DISK AND LIMB WERE MOSTLY QUIET. ONE
NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED; 8635 (N42W64).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO VERY LOW. ACTIVITY MAY START TO
INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS FORMER ACTIVE LONGITUDES RETURN TO
THE EAST LIMB.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED UNTIL 0900UT AND THEN WAS
QUIET FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET.
III. Event Probabilities 16 JUL to 18 JUL
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 JUL 130 Predicted 16 JUL-18 JUL 130/140/145 90 Day Mean 15 JUL 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 JUL 005/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 JUL 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 JUL-18 JUL 005/007-005/007-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 JUL to 18 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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