Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 July 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jul 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 JUL 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW, NO C-CLASS EVENTS
WERE OBSERVED SINCE THE C2.9 AT 0522UT ON THE 13TH. ALL REGIONS
APPEAR STABLE OR DECLINING AND THE SOLAR LIMBS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO VERY LOW. ACTIVITY MAY START TO INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
FORMER ACTIVE LONGITUDES RETURN TO THE EAST LIMB.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND BECOMING SLIGHTLY
ACTIVE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 15 JUL to 17 JUL
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 JUL 130 Predicted 15 JUL-17 JUL 130/125/120 90 Day Mean 14 JUL 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 JUL 003/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 JUL 003/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 JUL-17 JUL 005/005-007/007-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 JUL to 17 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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