Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 January 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jan 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 JAN 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL SMALL OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED C-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS OCCURRED. REGION 8421 (N26W84)
CONTINUES ITS SLOW DECAY AS IT ROTATES THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8426
(N15W10) WAS THE ONLY REGION SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT GROWTH AND IS
NOW A D-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP COVERING 190 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT
AREA. REMAINING REGIONS WERE QUIET AND STABLE. NEW REGION 8432
(N27W35) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGION 8321 AND 8326 WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED C-CLASS
FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT
ACTIVE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY DAY 2 FROM THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG-DURATION C6/1N FLARE ON 03/1514Z. DAY 3
WILL BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED AS A SOUTHERN CORONAL HOLE MOVES INTO A
GEO-EFFECTIVELY FAVORABLE POSITION.
III. Event Probabilities 06 JAN to 08 JAN
| Class M | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 JAN 137 Predicted 06 JAN-08 JAN 135/130/130 90 Day Mean 05 JAN 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 JAN 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 JAN 010/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 JAN-08 JAN 012/015-020/025-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 JAN to 08 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 50% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 55% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 35% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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