Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 June 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jun 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 JUN 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ALL VISIBLE REGIONS
APPEARED STABLE OR DECLINING. TWO SMALL SPOT GROUPS WERE NUMBERED
TODAY, REGION 8240 (S24W44) AND REGION 8241 (S27E17). A PARTIAL
HALO CME WAS OBSERVED AT 09/0627UT. MATERIAL WAS SEEN MOVING MOSTLY
TO THE SW. THIS EVENT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH DISAPPEARING FILAMENTS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN POLAR CROWN DURING THIS PERIOD.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW TO VERY LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LEVELS MAY INCREASE ON 12 JUN
WHEN OLD REGION 8226 (N12, L-210) IS DUE TO RETURN. REGION 8226
APPEARED TO BE GROWING AND PRODUCED MAJOR FLARES AS IT CROSSED WEST
LIMB ON 29 MAY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2MEV
ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN AT MODERATE LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON 12 JUN IN RESPONSE TO THE CME OBSERVED ON 8
JUN.
III. Event Probabilities 10 JUN to 12 JUN
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 JUN 112 Predicted 10 JUN-12 JUN 112/112/115 90 Day Mean 09 JUN 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 JUN 010/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 JUN 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 JUN-12 JUN 012/012-007/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 JUN to 12 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
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