SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE DAY'S EVENTS CONSISTED OF OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES. THE LARGEST OF THESE WAS A C7.3 AT 1938Z. THE SOURCE FOR MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WAS REGION 8214 (N27W31). THIS REGION IS GROWING AND HAS BRIGHT PLAGE WITH FREQUENT FLUCTUATIONS. OBSERVERS ARE REPORTING GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF PENUMBRA IN THE INTERMEDIATE SPOTS. THE CURRENT MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION IS MORE COMPLEX TODAY (BETA-GAMMA) AND THE REGION IS BECOMING COMPACT. REGION 8210 (S17W60) WAS RELATIVELY CALM TODAY, SHOWED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AREA, BUT WAS REPORTED TO PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SUBFLARES.

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8214. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM THIS REGION, ESPECIALLY IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. REGION 8210 CONTINUES TO POSE A FAIR M-CLASS THREAT AS WELL.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AN INITIALLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FIELD BECAME DISTURBED BETWEEN 0300-0700Z, WITH MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS OBSERVED AT MID AND HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS. FROM 0700-2100Z THE FIELD HAS BEEN CHARACTERIZED BY PREDOMINANTLY ACTIVE LEVELS, WITH SOME MINOR STORM PERIODS AT THE HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS. THE MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM THAT BEGAN WITH THE SSC OF 04/0300Z OFFICIALLY ENDED AT 05/0900UT. THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE X1/3B/HALO CME EVENT OF 02/1342Z. THIS EVENT WAS INITIALLY SEEN AT ACE AS A STRONG SHOCK AT 04/0229Z FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF NEGATIVE BZ FROM 04/0230-0430Z. THE SOLAR WIND DATA HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW CHARACTERISTICS OF TRANSIENT FLOW OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, NAMELY STRONG MAGNETIC FIELDS, VARIABLE TEMPERATURES, AND VARIABLE BUT HIGH VELOCITIES. THE FLOW DOES NOT SHOW THE 'CLASSIC CLOUD' STRUCTURE, SUGGESTING THAT THE DRIVER MISSED HITTING THE EARTH DIRECTLY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS EXCEEDED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS DUE TO LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO UNSETTLED TO QUIET THEREAFTER.

  Observed       05 MAY 133
  Predicted   06 MAY-08 MAY  135/135/130
  90 Day Mean        05 MAY 106

OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 MAY  090/096
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 MAY  025/035
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 MAY-08 MAY  020/025-015/020-005/013