Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 May 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 May 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 MAY 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE DAY'S EVENTS CONSISTED OF OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES. THE LARGEST OF THESE WAS A C7.3 AT 1938Z. THE SOURCE FOR MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WAS REGION 8214 (N27W31). THIS REGION IS GROWING AND HAS BRIGHT PLAGE WITH FREQUENT FLUCTUATIONS. OBSERVERS ARE REPORTING GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF PENUMBRA IN THE INTERMEDIATE SPOTS. THE CURRENT MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION IS MORE COMPLEX TODAY (BETA-GAMMA) AND THE REGION IS BECOMING COMPACT. REGION 8210 (S17W60) WAS RELATIVELY CALM TODAY, SHOWED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AREA, BUT WAS REPORTED TO PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SUBFLARES.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8214. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM THIS REGION, ESPECIALLY IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. REGION 8210 CONTINUES TO POSE A FAIR M-CLASS THREAT AS WELL.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AN INITIALLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FIELD BECAME DISTURBED BETWEEN 0300-0700Z, WITH MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS OBSERVED AT MID AND HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS. FROM 0700-2100Z THE FIELD HAS BEEN CHARACTERIZED BY PREDOMINANTLY ACTIVE LEVELS, WITH SOME MINOR STORM PERIODS AT THE HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS. THE MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM THAT BEGAN WITH THE SSC OF 04/0300Z OFFICIALLY ENDED AT 05/0900UT. THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE X1/3B/HALO CME EVENT OF 02/1342Z. THIS EVENT WAS INITIALLY SEEN AT ACE AS A STRONG SHOCK AT 04/0229Z FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF NEGATIVE BZ FROM 04/0230-0430Z. THE SOLAR WIND DATA HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW CHARACTERISTICS OF TRANSIENT FLOW OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, NAMELY STRONG MAGNETIC FIELDS, VARIABLE TEMPERATURES, AND VARIABLE BUT HIGH VELOCITIES. THE FLOW DOES NOT SHOW THE 'CLASSIC CLOUD' STRUCTURE, SUGGESTING THAT THE DRIVER MISSED HITTING THE EARTH DIRECTLY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS EXCEEDED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS DUE TO LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO UNSETTLED TO QUIET THEREAFTER.
III. Event Probabilities 06 MAY to 08 MAY
Class M75%75%75%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 MAY 133
  Predicted   06 MAY-08 MAY  135/135/130
  90 Day Mean        05 MAY 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 MAY  090/096
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 MAY  025/035
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 MAY-08 MAY  020/025-015/020-005/013
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 MAY to 08 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

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