Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 March 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Mar 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 078 Issued at 2200Z on 19 MAR 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8183 (N22E44)
PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 19/0125Z. THIS REGION IS SLOWLY GROWING
AND ALSO PRODUCED THREE C-CLASS FLARES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE
LARGEST OF WHICH WAS A C7/SF AT 19/1152Z. REGION 8179 (S22W56) HAS
BEGUN DECAYING SLOWLY AS IT NEARS THE WEST LIMB. THIS REGION DID NOT
PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY EXCEPT A FEW MINOR SUBFLARES. A
REVIEW OF THE LASCO IMAGES FROM YESTERDAY INDICATE ANOTHER PARTIAL
HALO/CME OCCURRED CONCURRENT WITH THE UNCORRELATED M1 FLARE AT
18/1112Z. A MAJORITY OF THE CME MASS APPEARED TO HAVE EJECTED FROM
THE E-SE SOLAR LIMB AND IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE GEOEFFECTIVENESS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW TO MODERATE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. REGIONS 8179 AND
8183 BOTH HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF CONTINUED C-CLASS FLARING AND A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY. BOTH REGIONS ALSO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED X-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ENERGETIC ELCTRON FLUX REMAINED IN THE HIGH RANGES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN
GENERALLY QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN MID
LATITUDES. HIGH LATITUDES MAY EXPERIENCE MOSTLY UNSETTLED ACTIVITY
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 20 MAR to 22 MAR
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 35% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 MAR 125 Predicted 20 MAR-22 MAR 124/122/116 90 Day Mean 19 MAR 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 MAR 004/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 MAR 004/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 MAR-22 MAR 005/015-005/015-005/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 MAR to 22 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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