Viewing archive of Friday, 20 February 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Feb 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 051 Issued at 2200Z on 20 FEB 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW, DUE TO A SINGLE C1/SF EVENT
FROM REGION 8156 AT 20/1011Z. REGION 8156 REMAINS A STABLE 9-SPOT
'EKO' BETA-GAMMA GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW, WITH THE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED C-CLASS
ACTIVITY FROM REGION 8156.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS,
EXCEPT FOR A SINGLE ISOLATED PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS RECORDED
DURING THE INTERVAL 20/0000-0300Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 21 FEB to 23 FEB
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 FEB 096 Predicted 21 FEB-23 FEB 094/093/092 90 Day Mean 20 FEB 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 FEB 005/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 FEB 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 FEB-23 FEB 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 FEB to 23 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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