Viewing archive of Monday, 2 February 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Feb 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 033 Issued at 2200Z on 02 FEB 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NEW REGION 8149 (N25E70),
A SPOTLESS PLAGE REGION, PRODUCED A B7.7/SF FLARE AT 02/1755Z. THIS
REGION IS JUST COMING ONTO THE VISIBLE DISK AND NO SPOTS HAVE BEEN
DETECTED YET. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK AND LIMB REMAINED QUIET AND
STABLE SAVE FOR A MINOR FILAMENT ERUPTION IN THE NW QUADRANT. NEW
REGION 8148 (S29E10), A RAPIDLY DISSIPATING BXO SPOT GROUP, WAS
NUMBERED TODAY ALSO.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8149 MAY HAVE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED C-CLASS
ACTIVITY AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE IF IT
GROWS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 03 FEB to 05 FEB
| Class M | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 FEB 089 Predicted 03 FEB-05 FEB 090/090/088 90 Day Mean 02 FEB 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 FEB 010/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 FEB 004/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 FEB-05 FEB 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 FEB to 05 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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